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FedEx Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • FedEx is set to report Q3 earnings on Oct. 28, with the EPS consensus estimate cut 30.6% to $3.24.
  • Higher wages, transportation costs & a $200M pilot contract headwind may weigh on FDX's profitability.
  • FDX targets nearly $1B in Network 2.0 savings by 2026 end, helping offset inflation & stranded costs.

FedEx Corporation (FDX - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28, after market close.

The transportation giant exits the September-end quarter amid higher wage and purchased transportation costs, expenses related to the new pilot contract and lingering stranded costs following the FedEx Freight spin-off. Although revenue momentum and transformation-related savings are likely to have provided some support, these cost pressures may have constrained profitability.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 30.6% over the past 60 days to $3.24 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 revenues is pegged at $92.14 billion, indicating a 2.27% increase from 2025 actuals.

FedEx Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

FedEx Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

FedEx Corporation price-eps-surprise | FedEx Corporation Quote

Factors Likely to Have Influenced FDX’s Q3 Performance

Higher Operating Costs: Wage inflation and purchased transportation expenses are likely to have weighed on FedEx’s profitability. Management’s calendar 2026 outlook incorporates approximately $2.6 billion of higher base expenses stemming from increased wage and purchased transportation rates and other inflationary factors.

Pilot Contract Expenses: The new pilot agreement is another likely cost headwind. FedEx expects the ratification of the contract to create an approximately $200 million expense headwind in calendar 2026, with the agreement becoming effective June 29.

Stranded Costs Following Freight Spin-Off: Costs remaining after the separation of FedEx Freight may also have limited margin expansion. FedEx estimated roughly $350 million of stranded costs after transferring certain expenses to FedEx Freight and expects to eliminate about $100 million of those costs during calendar 2026.

Seasonality and Slower Domestic Growth: The September quarter is traditionally FedEx’s weakest from an absolute profitability standpoint. Management had also expected the U.S. domestic growth rate to decelerate as the company lapped strong prior-year new-business onboarding, while Ground Economy volumes were projected to decline at a low-single-digit rate.

Partly offsetting these pressures, continued Network 2.0 savings, healthy base pricing and demand for premium B2B services are likely to have provided some support. FedEx remains on track to achieve nearly $1 billion of Network 2.0-related savings by the end of calendar 2026.

What Our Model Says About FDX

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FedEx this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

FedEx has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

UPS is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has remained flat at $1.63 per share over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 12.4%.

Kirby Corporation (KEX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KEX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.51% to $1.96 per share over the past 60 days. KEX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark on the other occasion. The average beat is 2.86%.  

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